Donald Trump has repeatedly confounded political insiders who have thought that his lead among Republican candidates would soon evaporate.
Touting his authenticity to voters, Trump’s lead over other Republican contenders has brought him to a place few insiders would have suspected.
Now, there is confirmation that GOP political insiders believe there is a very strong chance that Trump could in fact win the nomination.
According to a Politico survey, 81 percent of GOP insiders believe that there is a stronger chance of Trump becoming the nominee than they thought a month ago. 79 percent of Democratic insiders thought the same thing.
The survey, called the Politico Caucus, is a bi-partisan survey of top strategists, activists, and operatives in key early voting states.
Politico described the results:
Twenty-two percent of Caucus Republicans said Trump has a 50-50 shot at becoming the Republican nominee; the same percentage said he has a 30 percent chance. The rest of the respondents were divided, with the majority saying his odds are still less than 50 percent. But more than 8-in-10 GOP respondents said those are better odds than they gave Trump a month ago.
The results are notable because they represent a big shift in the thinking of POLITICO Caucus insiders, who this summer were deeply skeptical of Trump’s staying power.
One South Carolina Republican said: “I think he’s now mounting a serious campaign. His stump speech had matured and even though the novelty of his candidacy is wearing off, his straight talk is appealing to people who are so sick of being lied to by the political class.”
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A New Hampshire Republican pointed to the willingness of the party to nominate an establishment candidate in the mold of Bob Dole rather than nominate Trump. He stated:
Maybe, just maybe, Trump wins an early contest or two. That will trigger a much stronger Stop Trump movement. The party will nominate Bob Dole — in 2016 —before it will nominate Trump. And a Trump nomination would result in a third candidate emerging.
What do you think of Trump’s chances of becoming the GOP nominee?